That’s the big question among horse racing cognoscenti this week–can the Bob Baffert trained The Factor carry his blistering speed over the longer distances he’ll face in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Preakness? To paraphrase the ‘Magic 8 Ball’ “signs point to yes”.

The concern about a speed horse being able to compete in the Triple Crown races is nothing new. Just the dynamics of these big races make for a daunting challenge for a horse that needs to set the pace and run up front. They’re facing the ‘best of the best’–even if there’s not any other speedsters in the field there will definitely be a number of contenders that fit into the ‘stalker’ or ‘closer’ substrata. A speed horse needs to set a blistering pace that will leave the other front runners in the dust but have enough left in the stretch to hold off the closers that have been biding their time to make a run.

Heading into this weekend’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, even The Factor’s trainer Bob Baffert seemed unconvinced that his charge had what it takes to be a serious Triple Crown contender. Before the race, Baffert was very equivocal in his comments about The Factor and a potential Derby run, saying only that he’d ‘earned a chance’ to prove that he could carry his speed over a longer distance and around two turns. Consider it proven–by now everyone who follows horse racing is aware of The Factor’s impressive showing and even more impressive 103 Beyer Figure.

Not only has Baffert changed his tune–he’s all but confirmed The Factor for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby or the even more competitive Santa Anita Derby–it’s left many of the pedigree handicappers who seemed so certain that he was incapable of managing the Triple Crown distance in serious backtrack mode.  The Factor’s 103 Beyer Figure is tied with Soldat for the best by a three year old going a mile or longer this year.   And what could Soldat possibly have in common with The Factor?  Oh that’s right–they have the same daddy.  Both Soldat and The Factor are by War Front.  As Ed DeRosa at The Bloodhorse reminds us War Front’s progeny have already won at a variety of distances and surfaces.  He concludes that there’s no logical reason to dismiss The Factor as a contender until given a reason to do otherwise.

There’s still plenty of ‘haters’ out there–do a Google search and you’ll find any number of opinions suggesting that The Factor doesn’t have the stamina for a serious Derby contender with several calling him a ‘fraud’.  Granted, most were written months ago but there’s still plenty of that sentiment to be found.  They’ve got right to their opinion, but it’s hard to argue with that 103 Beyer Figure.