The Belmont Stakes will be held on June 9, 2012 and with a Triple Crown race (The Preakness) to be held between now and then compiling a list of contenders is exceedingly difficult. With only fourteen spaces in the starting field it eliminates some of the more marginal contenders that made the Kentucky Derby. The field will begin to take shape after The Preakness on May 19 but here’s some of the entrants from the Kentucky Derby that could go on to run in the Belmont and how we expect them to fare.
BODEMEISTER: Bodemeister took second in the Kentucky Derby, being caught at the wire by the winner I’ll Have Another. The Bob Baffert trained horse will once again have Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard for the Preakness. Bodemeister’s stock shot up drastically after a dominating performance in the Arkansas Derby, winning over stablemate Secret Circle by a whopping 9 lengths. Heading into the race there were questions about his ability to handle the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter—consider those questions answered. The positives with Bodemeister are obvious—he has three triple digit Beyer Speed Figures with the most recent being the scorching 108 in the Arkansas Derby. He was the only horse in the Derby field more than one triple digit Beyer. In theory, the mile and a half distance in the Belmont could be problematic but, on the other hand, he was lightly raced as a two year old and his connections might want to get him better acclimated to longer distances.
UNION RAGS: Union Rags was the second favorite entry on Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Bataglia’s morning line for the Kentucky Derby. Until recently he was a strong choice of most horse racing experts as well. That was before what is largely regarded as a disastrous run in the Florida Derby on March 31. The race was supposed to be a ‘coronation’ of Union Rags as the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby and his betting odds of 2-5 definitely reflected that. Unfortunately it didn’t work out that way—the race didn’t ‘break’ in his favor and he got a rare bad ride from jockey Julien Leparoux and Union Rags was upset by Take Charge Indy.
Union Rags would go on to finish seventh in the Kentucky Derby but most horse racing experts are cautioning against writing him off due to a pair of poor performances. His lackluster result in the Kentucky Derby had more to do with the brutal inside post position draw and the huge field. He’s far from the first contender to get caught in the crush of a big field and get completely taken out of the race. His starting slot made that even worse. His connections have confirmed that Union Rags will skip the Preakness and point toward the Belmont. Based on their comments the brutal two week turnaround between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness is the reason for their decision.
GEMOLOGIST: The Todd Pletcher trained Gemologist was a trendy pick for the Kentucky Derby but finished sixteenth. Ironically, he was expected to benefit from the speed horses setting brutal early fractions—the exact scenario that set up the win for I’ll Have Another. For now, it seems like his connections are pointing to the Preakness and he could be a perfect fit for Belmont as well. The longer distance should suit him as should the smaller field size. Gemologist is considered a ‘charismatic’ horse by experts—not surprising given how many other similarities exist between him and his sire, Tiznow. Trainer Pletcher has observed a tendency that he has to ‘wait for challengers’ when he gets the lead instead of extending his advantage.
HANSEN: Hansen’s stock has gone up and down more often than the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The beautiful white colt, eponymously named for owner Dr. Kendall Hansen, didn’t do anything wrong in his Derby prep races and is capably ridden by Ramon Dominguez. On the other hand, his critics suggest he hasn’t done anything to distinguish himself either and think he might be more ‘style’ than ‘substance’. He didn’t answer many questions in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished ninth but like so many other entrants he could fare better in a smaller field. Hansen’s last victory was a solid win over an undistinguished field in the Gotham. Set a brisk pace in the Blue Grass Stakes but had nothing left at the end as winner Dullihan ran him down like he was standing still. Still serious questions about his ability to handle the mile and a half distance.
CREATIVE CAUSE: Coming off a second place by a nose finish in the Santa Anita Derby and a solid fifth place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Creative Cause remains a very accomplished colt that remains ‘under the radar’ Most horse racing handicappers consider him a solid all around competitor, pointing to his continuous improvement along the Derby prep trail. He’s got a strong racing foundation and didn’t have any trouble with the Derby distance. His pedigree suggests that a mile and a half is within his range as well. As was the case in the Kentucky Derby, he could be a good value on race day—a quality horse who might just not be getting the publicity he deserves. With a first rate jockey in Joel Rosario aboard, Creative Cause will likely be bet down before post time.
ALPHA: Alpha solidified himself as a legitimate Derby candidate with his prep race performances. That being said, however, he certainly looks to be qualitatively a cut below the contenders in the Belmont Stakes. Gemologist beat him by a neck in the Wood Memorial, but despite running his best race demonstrated some serious liabilities. He started poorly and had to recover after the first turn to get back in the race. Took a nice run at Gemologist but had nothing for him—a concern given Todd Pletcher’s concern about his horse’s tendency to ‘wait for the field to catch up with him’. Could finish in the money if the race breaks just right for him but as was the case in the Kentucky Derby he’s a closer in against better closers in a ‘made to order’ race for them.
TAKE CHARGE INDY: Was expected to be a factor at the Kentucky Derby and particularly with Calvin Borel aboard. He was running a good race when Borel noticed something amiss and pulled him up. As it turned out, he had a bone chip in his ankle and will undergo surgery. It’s not career threatening, but he’ll miss the Preakness and the Belmont.
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER: The Kentucky Derby winner is on his way to the Preakness and his results there will determine his status for the Belmont. Obviously if he wins the Preakness and has a look at completing the Triple Crown he’ll definitely compete in the Belmont Stakes. His relative lack of popularity early was more of a function of what the other horses have done right more than anything he’s done wrong. Has only run one bad race in his career—a sixth place finish in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga as a two year old. That was run on a very sloppy track, but for some reason it has come to define his career despite considerable success since. Won the Santa Anita Derby by a nose and in the process turned in a time of 1:47 4/5 over the 1 1/8 mile. That’s the fastest winning time in that race since Point Given in 2001—and he went on to win two of the three legs of the Triple Crown (Preakness, Belmont). Some handicappers worried that he might bounce off a strong race at Santa Anita which would peg him for a ‘down’ day at the Kentucky Derby but that didn’t happen. Did everything jockey Mario Guttierez asked of him in his brilliant ride. Could be peaking at the right time.
EL PADRINO: Finished 13th in the Derby and as of now his next move is unclear. The smaller field could help him, but he may need the brisk pace of the Derby more than many of the other entrants. Much of the early support for El Padrino was based on his connections, particularly trainer Todd Pletcher. Unfortunately, his most recent performances in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby were both disappointing. He was forced wide and never really recovered, eventually finishing 4th three lengths behind the winner in Florida and was unable to get inside amid the traffic in Kentucky. Presence of jockey Rafael Bejarano definitely helps his cause but Pletcher may determine that there are races off the Triple Crown trail that could be a better fit.
WENT THE DAY WELL: A surprise 4th place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, Went The Day Well is trained by the respected Graham Motion. Based on his Derby performance he’s certainly going to go on to the Preakness and may try for the Belmont as well. A versatile colt who adapts well to different surfaces and track conditions. Could benefit from bad weather—ran in the rain in his last workout before the Kentucky Derby. Could be lost in the hype of the favorites in the Belmont and might be worth a play at a good price.
DADDY LONG LEGS: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has become a very important yardstick by which to measure early Kentucky Derby contenders—not surprising since the race attracts the best two year olds in the sport. Last year, for example, Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause finished 1-2-3 in the BC Juvenile. European shipper Daddy Long Legs finished next to last. He vaulted back into the mix for the ‘Run for the Roses’ by winning the UAE Derby in Dubai earlier this year. Unfortunately, he finished dead last in the Kentucky Derby. Trained by Aiden O’Brian, it’s starting to look like Daddy Long Legs overachieved in the UAE Derby. One serious strike against him—his only career starts on dirt were the dismal efforts at Churchill Downs in the BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby. Don’t be surprised if he’s taken off the Triple Crown trail altogether.
OPTIMIZER: other than a good trainer in D. Wayne Lukas there’s little to recommend about Optimizer. Only win is his maiden race at Saratoga against a forgettable class. Best finish since then was a second place performance in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He cashed a nice ‘place’ ticket at 28/1 but followed that up with a brutal showing in the Arkansas Derby finishing 9th. This was the race that vaulted Bodemeister to ‘favorite’ status and Optimizer was barely in the same zip code finishing 20 lengths behind the winner. Barely made the field and did so only due to withdrawals by horses with higher graded stakes winnings. Given the way he tired on the 1 1/8 mile in Arkansas and finished 10th in the Kentucky Derby hard to see him as a contender in either the Preakness or the Belmont.
DULLAHAN: There was a lot to like about the Dale Romans trained colt Dullahan. Good connections and a solid jockey up top in Kent Desormeaux. Coming off an impressive third place performance in the Kentucky Derby—and he almost caught Bodemeister for the #2 slot. Helped downplay concerns that he may have peaked early beating Hansen in the Bluegrass Stakes. Best performances have been on turf and poly surfaces, though hitting the board in the Kentucky Derby dispelled concerns about his ability to run on dirt. Might be a better horse than originally thought and should be able to handle the distance at Belmont. Latest word from his connections is that they’ll pass on the Preakness and target the Belmont Stakes thinking the rest and longer distance should work in his favor.
ROUSING SERMON: Finished 8th in the Kentucky Derby though that sounds more impressive than his actual performance. More downside than upside with this Jerry Hollendorfer trained entry. Only two wins in nine career starts—both against California breds—suggests that he’s out of his league qualitatively. Tendency to let other horses set the pace makes him all the more problematic as a betting proposition—he’ll likely get overrun by superior speed early and doesn’t have the class to hang with the closers late. At this point it looks like he’s being taken off the Triple Crown trail and that’s probably for the best.
TRINNIBERG: A sprinter that pushed Bodemeister to those amazing fractions, it’s hard to see him being entered in the Belmont though stranger things have happened. Faded badly as expected, finishing 17th. Currently being pointed to the Preakness—despite a slightly shorter distance could be more of the same. Virtually impossible to envision a scenario in which he could be anywhere near the front of the field after a mile and a half at the Belmont.
LIASON: Solid connections with Bob Baffert training and Martin Garcia riding. Had a brutal start position on the far outside in the Kentucky Derby but finished a surprising sixth. Very unimpressive in three outings this year at Santa Anita and given no chance in the prerace buildup at Churchill Downs. It could be a case where he simply didn’t like the surface at Santa Anita. Being pointed to the Preakness and his performance there will determine whether or not he runs in the Belmont.